I recommend using quantitative analysis in this instance.
Quantitative analysis involves using numerical data and statistical techniques to evaluate risks and assess their likelihood and impact. This type of analysis can be particularly useful when there is historical data available that can be used to simulate the overall risk outcome. By using quantitative analysis, the project manager can take a more objective and data-driven approach to risk assessment, and can use the results of the analysis to inform risk management strategies. Some common techniques for quantitative risk analysis include decision tree analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and expected value analysis.